the key idea is that if $a,b$ are chosen at random from $G$ then they commute iff $b$ belongs to $Z_G(a)$, the centralizer of $a$. thus since conjugates share the same centralizer, the probability that $b$ commutes with $gag^{-1}$ is also
$$
p(a,b) = \frac{Z_G(a)}{|G|}=[G:Z_G(a)]^{-1}
$$
since each $a$ is equally likely to be chosen with probability $|G|^{-1}$ we find the probability of two elements commuting is
$$
|G|^{-1}\sum_{a \in G} [G:Z_G(a)]^{-1}
$$
since the sum can be done over conjugacy classes this shows that the probability we require is in fact simply
$$\frac{C_G}{|G|}$$
where $C_G$ is the number of conjugacy classes of $G$
since every element of the center is a class, and any other class must have at least two elements in it, we have:
$$
C_G \le |Z(G)| + \frac12(|G|-|Z|) = \frac12(|G|+|Z(G)|)
$$
an easy argument shows that the index of the center of a non-abelian group must be at least $4$, from which the result follows.