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A spinner has 4 sectors of area 10%, 20%, 30% and 40%.

What is the expected # of spins for the spinner to stop on each sector at least once ?

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If areas were equal, it'd be 4/4 +4/3 +4/2 +4/1 = 8.33

and with the unequal probabilities above, it'd be > 10 as pointed out by @Hagen, but how do we get the exact value ?

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I have already provided some context in the first edit. I am not a mathematician, just a puzzle aficionado, so the simpler the explanation, the better for me.

  • 2
    2 years, 4 months on the site. – Did May 03 '14 at 13:36
  • Without calculation, the expected number of spins to stop on the 10% sector once is ten. And with ten rounds it is quite likely that we have encountered each of the other results already. So the answer should not be much higher than 10. – Hagen von Eitzen May 03 '14 at 13:40
  • @gar: Thanks for the answer. If I could understand 10% of what's on Wiki, I'd not be asking this question here ! I wonder whether there is a simpler explanation possible. – true blue anil May 03 '14 at 15:48
  • @trueblueanil: Well, I haven't read the explanation, but you can find it in the paper by Flajolet et. al. (was too in the wiki.) I'm not sure whether I can understand all that is there, but like Oliver Heaviside says -- "Shall I refuse my dinner because I do not fully understand the process of digestion?" ! – gar May 03 '14 at 16:16
  • @true I know you've already accepted my answer, but I added a section to my answer proving gar's formula in terms of mine. – Mario Carneiro May 03 '14 at 20:45
  • 1
    Related: http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/25568/expected-number-of-rolling-a-pair-of-dice-to-generate-all-possible-sums –  May 03 '14 at 21:01

2 Answers2

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See the coupon collector's problem formula for non uniform probabilities.

$\displaystyle E(T)=\int_0^\infty \big(1-\prod_{i=1}^n(1-e^{-p_it})\big)dt $

Substituting the probabilities for the problem and evaluating the integral gives

$\displaystyle E(T)=\frac{445}{36}\approx 12.3611$

gar
  • 4,988
5

Here's a completely elementary approach (although it's not as clean as gar's answer by more sophisticated methods).

First, let's analyze why you say that for equal sectors, the expected value is $\frac44+\frac43+\frac42+\frac41=\frac{25}3$. The expected number of spins to get at least one sector is $1$ (it's guaranteed to hit something). After this event, we collect all the sectors not yet hit, with total value $3/4$, and ask the expected number of tries to hit this region at least once: this is $4/3$. Repeating the process until there are no more regions, we get $25/3$.

For unequal sectors, we can use the same technique, although it gets more complicated. Let $S(\{k_1,\dots,k_n\})$ be the expected number of spins for the spinner to hit the each of the $P(k_i)$ sectors at least once. Then your goal is $S(\{.1,.2,.3,.4\})$, and $S(\emptyset)=0$. The relevant equation here is $S(A)=(1-\sum A)(S(A)+1)+\sum_{p\in A}p(S(A\setminus\{p\})+1)$, because the expected number of spins to get each of the sectors in $A$ is a weighted sum over the sectors. For each sector in $A$, we multiply the probability of hitting that sector times the cost of this try, $1$, plus the expected number of extra tries to hit the remaining sectors. If we hit a sector not in $A$, we try again, and this event has probability $1-\sum A$ and cost $1+S(A)$. This allows you to calculate $S(A)$ recursively, via the formula

$$S(A)=\frac{1+\sum_{p\in A}p\,S(A\setminus\{p\})}{\sum A}.$$

We can verify that $S(\{p\})=\frac{1+0}{p}=\frac1p$ meets our expectation. Working out the probabilities by explicit calculation (on Mathematica, 'cause I'm lazy) yields:

\begin{align} S(\emptyset)&=0\\ S(\{.1\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot0}{.1}=10\\ S(\{.2\})&=\frac{1+.2\cdot0}{.2}=5\\ S(\{.3\})&=\frac{1+.3\cdot0}{.3}=\frac{10}{3}\\ S(\{.4\})&=\frac{1+.4\cdot0}{.4}=\frac{5}{2}\\ S(\{.1,.2\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot5+.2\cdot10}{.1+.2}=\frac{35}{3}\\ S(\{.1,.3\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot10/3+.3\cdot10}{.1+.3}=\frac{65}{6}\\ S(\{.1,.4\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot5/2+.4\cdot10}{.1+.4}=\frac{21}{2}\\ S(\{.2,.3\})&=\frac{1+.2\cdot10/3+.3\cdot5}{.2+.3}=\frac{19}{3}\\ S(\{.2,.4\})&=\frac{1+.2\cdot5/2+.4\cdot5}{.2+.4}=\frac{35}{6}\\ S(\{.3,.4\})&=\frac{1+.3\cdot5/2+.4\cdot10/3}{.3+.4}=\frac{185}{42}\\ S(\{.1,.2,.3\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot19/3+.2\cdot65/6+.3\cdot35/3}{.1+.2+.3}=\frac{73}{6}\\ S(\{.1,.2,.4\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot35/6+.2\cdot21/2+.4\cdot35/3}{.1+.2+.4}=\frac{167}{14}\\ S(\{.1,.3,.4\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot185/42+.3\cdot21/2+.4\cdot65/6}{.1+.3+.4}=\frac{937}{84}\\ S(\{.2,.3,.4\})&=\frac{1+.2\cdot185/42+.3\cdot35/6+.4\cdot19/3}{.2+.3+.4}=\frac{863}{126}\\ S(\{.1,.2,.3,.4\})&=\frac{1+.1\cdot863/126+.2\cdot937/84+.3\cdot167/14+.4\cdot73/6}{.1+.2+.3+.4}=\frac{445}{36},\\ \end{align}

which agrees with gar's answer by a different method.


This approach also leads to a proof of gar's integral answer $S(A)=\int_0^\infty\left(1-\prod_{p\in A}(1-e^{-pt})\right)\,dt$ (where $\sum A=1$). First, we need to generalize that result to $S(A)<1$. In this case, we can map each trial to a selection of the region of probability $\sum A$, followed by the same unequal-probabilities case where the probabilities are multiplied by $\frac1{\sum A}$, but a change of variables $t\mapsto t\sum A$ reveals that the formula is the same in this case. We can evaluate the integral:

\begin{align} \int_0^\infty\Big(1-\prod_{p\in A}(1-e^{-pt})\Big)\,dt&=\int_0^\infty\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}e^{-(\sum B)t}\,dt\\ &=\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac1{\sum B}\\ \end{align}

It is this version of the formula that we will prove by induction. Obviously $S(A)=0$ is satisfied, and for the induction step:

\begin{align} S(A)\sum A&=1+\sum_{p\in A}p\,S(A\setminus\{p\})\\ &=1+\sum_{p\in A}\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A\setminus\{p\}}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac p{\sum B}\\ &\stackrel?=\sum A\cdot\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac1{\sum B}\\ &=\sum_{p\in A}\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac p{\sum B}\\ \end{align}

Canceling common terms, we want to prove $$\sum_{p\in A}\sum_{p\in B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac p{\sum B}=1.$$ Each $B\subseteq A$ appears $|B|$ times in the sum, once for each $p\in B$. Collecting these terms together, we have \begin{align} \sum_{p\in A}\sum_{p\in B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac p{\sum B}&=\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}\sum_{p\in B}(-1)^{|B|+1}\frac p{\sum B}\\ &=\sum_{\emptyset\ne B\subseteq A}(-1)^{|B|+1}\\ &=\sum_{n=1}^{|A|}\sum_{B\subseteq A,|B|=n}(-1)^{n+1}\\ &=\sum_{n=1}^{|A|}{|A|\choose n}(-1)^{n+1}\\ &=1-\sum_{n=0}^{|A|}(-1)^n{|A|\choose n}=1,\\ \end{align}

because of the identity $\sum_{n=0}^{|A|}(-1)^n{|A|\choose n}=0$.