I am pretty sure your conjecture is true. Here I give a proof based on the "whack it with a hammer until it breaks" philosophy... hopefully there is a more illuminating short-cut which I have not seen.
Consider the function $M(x) = \frac12(x + \cos(x))$. Its derivative is positive on $[0,1]$. This in particular means that $M(x) < x$ whenever $x < 1_*$.
Observe also that if $x < 1_*$, $\cos(x) > 1_*$ and vice versa.
Now consider a cycle for the nontrivial string $b$. There are several types of points:
- $x > 1_*$ which is obtained from $x = \cos(y)$ where $y < 1_*$.
- $x \geq 1_*$ which is obtained from $x = \sin(y)$ where $y > 1_*$.
- $x < 1_*$ which leads to $y = \cos(x) > 1_*$.
- $x \leq 1_*$ which leads to $y = \sin(x) < 1_*$.
Note that 1 and 3 are paired. Each pair has average less than $1_*$ and so can be ignored.
We are down to points of type 2 and 4. For $x$ of type 2, the corresponding $y$ must be at least $\arcsin(1_*)\approx 0.8316$
First consider a type 2 number $x$, its predecessors can be written as the string
$$ x' \to \text{some chain of alternating type 1 and 3 numbers} \to x $$
we have several possibilities:
- the intermediate chain is length 0, and $x'$ is type 2.
- the intermediate chain has length a positive even number, with $x'$ being type 2.
- the intermediate chain has length a positive even number, with $x'$ being type 4.
In the first case it is obvious that $x' > x$. I claim that this is also true for the second case. Consider $y$ as above, we have that $\arccos(y) \approx 0.59 < 0.67 \approx \sin(1_*)$. This means that $\arccos(y)$ can only be obtained as $\sin$ of a type 4 number or $\cos$ of a type 1 or 2 number, and not $\sin$ of a type 1 or 2 number. Using that $1_*$ is a global attractor this means that by induction all the connecting operators for the entire type 1-type 3 chain is cosine, and that each of the type 1 numbers appearing in the chain is bigger than the subsequent one. The same argument shows that $x' > x$.
Now, since $\arcsin(\arcsin(1_*)) \approx 0.982$ and $\arcsin(\arcsin(\arcsin(1_*))) > 1$, this means that if we start with the cycle for the string $b$, and remove all type 1 and type 3 points from it, the resulting reduced cycle can only have at most 2 consecutive type 2 points.
Let us now look at the third case. That $1_*$ is a global attractor for $\cos$ means that during the intermediate chain the distance to $1_*$ is monotonically decreasing. The distance from the type 4 point $x'$ to the first element of the intermediate chain is smaller than the distance from $x$ to the last element of the chain: this is due to $x-\sin x$ being an increasing function on $[0,1]$. Hence in the third case $x' + x < 2\times 1_*$.
Let me summarise what we have done so far: the cycle contains a bunch of pairs of the form
- Type 1 $\to \cos \to$ type 3, which averages to less than $1_*$.
- Type 4 $\to \sin\to$ (type 1 - type 3 chain) $\to \sin \to$ type 2, where the average of the type 4 and 2 numbers is less than $1_*$.
We have some type 2 numbers which are preceded by type 2 numbers left over, and we need to control them.
Suppose that $x' \to x$ are consecutive numbers in the cycle for $b$. There are only two ways for $|x' - 1_*| < |x - 1_*|$:
- $x'$ is type 4
- $1_* \leq x' < A$ where $A + \sin A = 2 \times 1_*$.
We have shown above that in a string
$$ z \to \text{some alternating string of type 1 and 3 numbers} \to x $$
where $x$ is type 2, no number in the intermediate string can belong to the second class above. The same argument in fact also shows that in a string
$$ z \to \text{alternating type 1/3} \to \text{type 2} \to \text{alternating type 1/3} \to x $$
where $x$ is type 2, none of the intermediate string between $z$ (which is necessarily type 4) and $x$ can be of the second case above. This implies that $z \leq \arcsin(\arccos(\arcsin(1_*))) \approx 0.63 < \sin(1_*)$. This tells us that going backwards from $z$ can only increase the distance to $1_*$ unless one hits another type 4 number.
But recall that from the above, we have that the average of $z$ and the intermediate type 2 number is less than $1_*$, which means that $z$ is further away from $1_*$ than the intermediate type 2 number. The monotonicity thus implies that $z$ cannot be preceded by another type 2 number without meeting a type 4 number in between. The monotonicity again implies that this type 4 number is further away from $1_*$ than $x$ (remember $x$?).
Thus we see that every number of type $1$ and $2$ can be paired, respectively, with a number of type $3$ and $4$ in the cycle for $b$, in a way that the average between the pairs is less than $1_*$. Hence the total average of all the conjugates is $< 1_*$.