We start with $k$ balls, labelled $1, 2, \dots, k$ sorted in ascending order, let us call this a chain with length $k$. Now, we place $s \in \mathbb{N}$, $s < k$, bars between them "at random", i.e. for each of those $k-1$ gaps the probability of placing a bar should be the same ($p = (k-1)/s$), and we can only place at most one bar in each gap. After placing all bars, the initial chain has been split into $s+1$ sub-chains, and we may study the lengths of the resulting sub-chains, i.e. the number of balls between two consecutive bars - or the number of balls before the first bar and the number of balls after the last bar.
I am interested in the distribution of those lengths.
E.g. let us consider $k = 11$ balls and $s = 4$ bars. Then a possible outcome is $1.2|3.4|5|6.7.8|9.10.11$, which corresponds to $1$ chain with length $1$, $2$ chains with length $2$, also $2$ chains with length $3$ and $0$ chains with all other lengths.
I realize that placing the $s$ bars can be done in $\binom{k-1}{s}$ different ways. I have naively tried to model the probability that a single chain has length $\ell$ using a geometric distribution (the "first success" determines the length of the chain), but this does not work, as it sometimes yields chains larger than $k$, and it does not guarantee that the initial chain is split into exactly $s+1$ sub-chains. I have found this thread: What is the distribution of gaps? but the mentioned formula has a flaw in my eyes: At one time $M_i$ is computed by using a $\min(n,\lfloor \frac{m-n}{i-1} \rfloor)$. But, for a length $i=1$ this fraction is not well-defined, the denominator is equal to $0$.
I have the feeling that this should be a problem that was already solved. I am happy for a hint into the right direction, a hint to where I can find a solution, or of course a solution.
1: 2/5, 2: 4/15, 3: 1/6, 4: 2/21, 5: 1/21, 6: 2/105, 7: 1/210? It seems it is given by $j \mapsto \frac{\binom{k-j}{s} - \binom{k-j-1}{s}}{\binom{k-1}{s}}$. If this is correct, I'll try to make an answer. – ploosu2 Apr 21 '25 at 18:54