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Let $\{X_k\}$ be a sequence of mutually independent random variables with \begin{align} \mathbb{P}(X_k = 1) & = 1/2 + 1/k, \\ \mathbb{P}(X_k = -1) & = 1/2 - 1/k \end{align} for each $k \ge 1$.

Question

a) What is $\mathbb{P}(\sum_{k=1}^\infty X_k = +\infty)$?

b) What is the distribution of $\liminf\sum_{\ell=1}^k X_\ell$?

Thoughts

  1. According to Kolmogorov's zero-one law, the answer to Question a) is 0 or 1. If it is 1, then the answer to Question b) is trivial.

  2. $\{\sum_{\ell=1}^k X_\ell\}$ is a submartingale with bounded increments. Hence, almost surely, either it converges to a finite value or its upper limit is infinity. The former is impossible since the increments are either $1$ or $-1$. Thus the latter is almost sure. What is unclear to me is the behavior of the lower limit.

  3. Note that $\mathbb{E}(X_k) = 2/k$ for each $k\ge 1$, which sums up to positive infinity. However, the divergence of the sum seems too slow for a naive application of Hoeffding's inequality to yield something useful, but maybe I am mistaken.

Context

I am a computational mathematician with limited knowledge on probability theory. This question is a simple special case of a problem arising from analyzing randomized algorithms. $X_k$ indicates whether an iteration is successful or not. For the convergence of the algorithm, $\sum_{k=1}^\infty X_k$ needs to be infinity.

Nuno
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  • What are your thoughts? What have you tried? Where are you stuck? You need to provide context for your question. Otherwise it just looks like you want somebody to do your homework for you; that's not what this site is for. If you add some appropriate context, we will be happy to help. – Greg Martin Sep 09 '24 at 02:44
  • Hi @GregMartin. Thanks for your comment. Updated accordingly. – Nuno Sep 09 '24 at 03:01
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    Intuitively, since relatively quickly $S_n:=\sum_{k\leq n}X_k$ becomes not very different from a random walk then one could expect a "law of iterated logarithm" such that $\limsup_n\frac{S_n}{a_n}=1$ a.s. and $\liminf_n\frac{S_n}{a_n}=-1$ for some sequence $a_n\uparrow \infty$ and so $\limsup_nS_n=\infty,\liminf_nS_n=-\infty$ a.s. – Snoop Sep 09 '24 at 13:34
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    Thank you @Snoop for the insights. The key is to clarify what "not very different" means and when it happens. Suppose that $\mathbb{E}(X_k) = Ck^{-\alpha}$ to be a bit more general. As elaborated by Fnacool in his excellent answer below, "not very different" turns out to hold when $\alpha > 1/2$, so that the measure is close enough (equivalent) to the uniform one. In contrast, when $\alpha < 1/2$, the difference is too big for the law of iterated logarithm to hold, as shown in my answer. It is interesting to investigate what happens when $\alpha = 1/2$. – Nuno Sep 11 '24 at 01:54

3 Answers3

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Proposition. Let $\{X_k\}$ be a sequence of mutually independent random variables taking either $1$ or $-1$ with $\mathbb{E}(X_k) = Ck^{-\alpha}$ for each $k\ge 1$, where $C$ and $\alpha$ are positive constants. Then, almost surely, $$ \liminf_{k\to \infty} \sum_{\ell=1}^k X_\ell = \begin{cases} +\infty & \text{ if } \alpha < \dfrac{1}{2}, \\[2ex] -\infty & \text{ if } \alpha > \dfrac{1}{2}. \end{cases} $$

Intuition. Let $\{U_k\}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on $\{-1, 1\}$. Then $\{X_k\}$ and $\{U_k\}$ seems "close to each other", and
$$ \mathbb{E} \left(\sum_{\ell=1}^k (X_\ell - U_\ell)\right) = C\sum_{\ell=1}^k\ell^{-\alpha}. $$ Since $\sum_{\ell=1}^k U_\ell$ oscillates between $-\sqrt{k}\log\log k$ and $\sqrt{k}\log\log k$ according to the law of the iterated logarithm, we hope that its negative drift is dominated by $\sum_{\ell=1}^k (X_\ell - U_\ell)$ when $\alpha < 1/2$, and dominates the latter when $\alpha > 1/2$.

Proof. Define $$ S_k = \sum_{\ell=1}^k X_\ell, \quad k \ge 1. $$

Case 1. $\alpha <1/2$. Since $-1\le X_k \le 1$ and $\mathbb{E}(S_k) \ge Ck^{1-\alpha}$ for each $k\ge 1$, Hoeffding's inequality yields $$ \mathbb{P}(S_k \le Ck^{1-\alpha}/2) \le \mathbb{P}(|S_k - \mathbb{E}(S_k)| \ge Ck^{1-\alpha}/2) \le 2\exp(-C^2k^{1-2\alpha}/8), \quad k\ge 1. $$ Thus $\{\mathbb{P}(S_k \le Ck^{1-\alpha}/2)\}$ is summable. Hence the Borel-Cantelli lemma tells us $$ \mathbb{P}(S_k \le Ck^{1-\alpha}/2 \text{ infinitely often}) = 0, $$ which justifies the desired conclusion.

Case 2. $\alpha > 1/2$ (or, more generally, $\sum_{k=1}^\infty \mathbb{E}(X_k)/\sqrt{k\log\log k} < +\infty$). Let $\{Y_k\}$ be a sequence of mutually independent random variables taking either $0$ or $1$ with $$ \mathbb{P}(Y_k = 1) = \frac{k^\alpha}{C + k^\alpha}, \quad k\ge 1. $$ In addition, we require that the sequences $\{X_k\}$ and $\{Y_k\}$ are mutually independent. Define $$ U_k = (X_k +1)Y_k - 1 \quad \text{and} \quad V_k = (X_k +1)(1-Y_k), \quad k\ge 1. $$ Then $\{U_k\}$ and $\{V_k\}$ are both mutually independent sequences. By the independence between $\{X_k\}$ and $\{Y_k\}$, it is easy to check that $$ \mathbb{P}(U_k = 1) = \frac{1}{2} = \mathbb{P}(U_k = -1), \quad k\ge 1, $$ and $$ \mathbb{P}(V_k = 2) = \frac{C}{2k^\alpha} = 1- \mathbb{P}(V_k = 0), \quad k\ge 1. $$ Clearly, $X_k = U_k + V_k$, and hence $$ S_k = \sum_{\ell=1}^k U_\ell + \sum_{\ell=1}^k V_\ell, \quad k\ge 1. $$ With $M_k = \sqrt{2k\log\log k}$, the law of the iterated logarithm renders $$ \liminf_{k\to\infty} \frac{1}{M_k}\sum_{\ell=1}^k U_\ell = -1 \quad\text{a.s.} $$ On the other hand, by the monotone convergence theorem and the fact that $\mathbb{E}(V_k) = Ck^{-\alpha}$ for each $k\ge 1$ with $\alpha > 1/2$, we have $$ \mathbb{E}\left(\sum_{k=1}^\infty \frac{V_k}{M_k}\right) = \sum_{k=1}^\infty \frac{\mathbb{E}(V_k)}{M_k} < +\infty, $$ which implies that $\sum_{k=1}^\infty (V_k/M_k) < +\infty$ a.s., and hence Kronecker's lemma ensures $$ \lim_{k\to \infty} \frac{1}{M_k} \sum_{\ell=1}^k V_\ell = 0 \quad \text{a.s.} $$ Combining the above two limits, we have $\liminf (S_k/M_k) = -1$, which implies the desired conclusion. $\quad \blacksquare$

Remarks.

  1. When $\alpha < 1/2$, the proof above does not need $\{X_k\}$ to take vaues in $\{1,-1\}$. Its boundedness and the order of the expectations are sufficient.

  2. When $\alpha > 1/2$ (or, more generally, $\sum_{k=1}^\infty [\mathbb{E}(X_k)]^2 < +\infty$), thanks to @Fnacool's excellent answer and in alignment with @Snoop's comment, we know that the law of the iterated logarithm indeed holds for $\{X_k\}$ under $\mathbb{P}$, namely $$ \liminf_{k\to \infty}\frac{S_k}{\sqrt{2k\log\log k}} = -1 \quad \text{and}\quad \limsup_{k\to \infty}\frac{S_k}{\sqrt{2k\log\log k}} = 1 \quad \mathbb{P}\text{-a.s.} $$ This is because Kakutani's dichotomy theorem ensures that $\mathbb{P}$ is equivalent to $\mathbb{Q}$ (and hence they have the same sets of probability 1) with $$ \mathbb{Q}(X_k = 1) = \frac{1}{2} = \mathbb{Q}(X_k = -1) \quad\text{i.i.d.}, $$ since $$ \sum_{k = 1}^\infty \log \int_{\mathbb{R}} \sqrt{\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathbb{P}_k}{\mathrm{d} \mathbb{Q}_k}} \mathrm{d} \mathbb{Q}_k = \sum_{k = 1}^\infty \log \frac{1}{2} \left[\sqrt{1+\mathbb{E}_\mathbb{P}(X_k)}+\sqrt{1-\mathbb{E}_\mathbb{P}(X_k)}\right] < +\infty, $$ where $\mathbb{P}_k$ is the marginal of $\mathbb{P}$ corresponding to $X_k$, and $\mathbb{Q}_k$ is similar.

  3. It is unclear to me what will happen if $\alpha = 1/2$. If you have an idea, you may share it on MathOverflow.

Update. As pointed out on MathOverflow, $\{X_k\}$ indeed satisfies the following law of the iterated logarithm: $$ \liminf_{k\to \infty}\frac{\sum_{\ell=1}^k[X_\ell - \mathbb{E}(X_\ell)]}{\sqrt{2k\log\log k}} = -1 \quad \text{and}\quad \limsup_{k\to \infty}\frac{\sum_{\ell=1}^k[X_\ell - \mathbb{E}(X_\ell)]}{\sqrt{2k\log\log k}} = 1 \quad \text{a.s.} $$ The lower limit implies $$ \liminf_{k\to \infty} \sum_{\ell=1}^k X_\ell = \begin{cases} +\infty & \text{ if } \alpha < \dfrac{1}{2}, \\[2ex] -\infty & \text{ if } \alpha \ge \dfrac{1}{2}, \end{cases} $$ covering $\alpha = 1/2$. Indeed, $\liminf_k \sum_{\ell=1}^kX_\ell = -\infty$ if $\sum_{\ell=1}^k\mathbb{E}(X_\ell) = o(\sqrt{k\log\log k})$. The key is to apply the correct version of the law of the iterated logarithm, not the one on Wikipedia as of 2024-09-11, which demands iid random variables with zero mean and unit variance, but the classical one by Kolmogorov, which handles any sequence of independent random variables with zero mean under a mild assumption on the magnitude of $X_k$. See also Theorems 7.1--7.3, Petrov 1995.

Nuno
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Another way to view this is through Kakutani's Dichotomy theorem. A quick calculation shows that the given measure $P$ is mutually absolutely continuous with respect to IID measure $Q(X_k=1)= Q(X_k = -1) = \frac 12$.

As both measures have the same sets of measure $1$:

  1. $P$-almost surely $ \limsup \sum_{k=1}^n X_k = \infty$ and $ \liminf \sum_{k=1}^n X_k = \infty$ and
  2. (As mentioned in the excellent answer by @Nuno) since the LIL holds for $Q$, it also holds for $P$, giving us a much more refined result.
Fnacool
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Here's a coupling argument for $\lim\sup$:

We couple random walks $S_{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{n}X_{k}$ and a simple symmetric random walk $T_{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{n}Y_{k}$, in the following way.

For notational purposes, just assume that $X_{1}$, $X_{2}$ are just Symmetric Bernoulli$(\frac{1}{2})$ variates and the $\frac{1}{n}$ comes in from $n\geq 3$ onwards. So let $Y_{1}=X_{1}, Y_{2}=X_{2}$.

At each step $n\geq 3$, if $X_{n}=-1$ then $Y_{n}=-1$ and if $X_{n}=1$, then $Y_{n}=-1$ with probability $\frac{\frac{1}{n}}{\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{n}}$.

Then see that $P(Y_{n}=-1)=(\frac{1}{2}-\frac{1}{n})+\left(\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{n}\right)\cdot\frac{\frac{1}{n}}{\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{n}}=\frac{1}{2}$ and hence also $P(Y_{n}=1)=1-\frac{1}{2}=\frac{1}{2}$.

And $Y_{n}$'s are iid as each $Y_{n}$ depends only on $X_{n}$ and $X_{n}$'s are independent.

So $T_{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{n}Y_{k}$ is a Simple Symmetric Random Walk.

But by our construction we have $T_{n}\leq S_{n}$ always. (i.e. if our walk $S_{n}$ moved left, then $T_{n}$ must have moved left)

So $\lim\sup S_{n}\geq\lim\sup T_{n}$ but we know for a fact that $\lim\sup T_{n}=+\infty$ almost surely. (one knows that the SSRW is transient)

Thus $\lim\sup S_{n}=+\infty$ almost surely.

  • Hi, thank you for your answer. I am not sure how your construction works for liminf (in the your limsup construction is the same as the one in one of the answers above). According to your definition, $Y_n\ge X_n$. Then how did you get that $Y_n$ was uniformly distributed, given that $X_n$ takes 1 with a probability higher than a half? Let me put it in another way: how does your method work if we replace $1/k$ with $k^{-\alpha}$ in the definition of $X_k$? Thanks. – Nuno Sep 12 '24 at 02:21
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    @Nuno Yeah you are right, my construction does not work for liminf. I thought about that late last night and did not correct it. Kakutani's theorem is the best way forward. – Mr. Gandalf Sauron Sep 12 '24 at 07:36