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Covid virions on infection, replicate exponentially and once the body's defense system starts attacking it then it also seems to decrease exponentially.

enter image description here Source

The time period when the PCR test is positive is 14 days, let it be $t$. In the above graph it is from 4th day to 17th day.

Let the peak count be $k$, which is around $10^9$ to $10^{11}$. Source

The lifespan of a single covid cell seems to be around a single day.

  1. How do we model this?

  2. What would be the total number of Covid virons that existed during the entire period of infection, from day 0 to day 25?

Hari Kumar
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  • I don't think this is a proper question for this this site. The correctness or utility of an answer will not rest on mathematical issues but rather on biological ones. – kimchi lover Sep 09 '23 at 17:35
  • @kimchilover nothing much purely biological here. We have an exponential rise and exponential fall of population. We have the peak value and we have the duration. Now can we come up with an equation which describes this?? Now this is purely mathematical question. – Hari Kumar Sep 09 '23 at 18:08
  • Since you have a valid curve you would get a very good estimate by just integrating rectangles or trapezoids day by day. I don't think any model of a curve would be more exact. – trula Sep 09 '23 at 18:35
  • @trula but we don't know height of rectangles on each day. We just know the peak height and the duration and that it is exponential. – Hari Kumar Sep 09 '23 at 20:50
  • Your curve is not exponential after day 9 going down , and not al the way going up since you don't even know the peak up to a factor 10 better stay wit the results which I think are experimental ? – trula Sep 09 '23 at 21:31
  • @trula ok, I just want some kind if curve which fits well to calculate area under the curve. – Hari Kumar Sep 10 '23 at 04:04

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