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I'm trying to determine if there is a theoretical maximum Elo rating one player could attain in a closed group of $N$ players (assuming for simplicity that they all start with some rating $c$, such that the total Elo of the system is always $Nc$), and if there is a maximum what that maximum is in terms of $N$ and $c$ (or even if it can be lower bounded in those terms).

I believe it's easiest and potentially useful to think of the $N=2$ case first, and see whether there is a maximum difference in rating between two players which could be obtained through their playing successive games.

Elo Background

In an Elo system, each game scores such that the winner receives 1 point and the loser 0 points, with both players receiving 0.5 points for draws, and the change to a player's Elo rating is based on the difference between their actual score and their expected score, where expected score is calculated as a function of the involved players' relative Elo ratings.

More precisely, given Elo ratings $R_A$ and $R_B$, the expected scores in a match between players $A$ and $B$ are given from:

\begin{align} &E_A = \frac{1}{1+10^{(R_B-R_A)/400}} \in (0,1)\\ &E_B = \frac{1}{1+10^{(R_A-R_B)/400}} = 1- E_A \end{align}

and, given that player $A$'s actual score is $S_A$, Elo ratings are updated (for some positive constant $k$) as:

\begin{align} R_A' &= R_A + k(S_A-E_A) \\ R_B' &= R_B -k(S_A-E_A) \end{align}

where generally $k=16$.

Original Problem

Assuming player $A$ wins the game with player $B$, we can express the rating difference after $A$'s victory $d' = R_A' -R_B'$ as a function of their initial rating difference $d = R_A - R_B$:

\begin{align} d' &= R_A' -R_B' \\ &= R_A -R_B + 2k(1-E_A) \\ &= d + 2k(E_B) \\ &= d + \frac{2k}{1+10^{d/400}} \end{align}

We could then express the difference in rating between players $A$, $B$ after $A$'s winning $n$ games with a recurrence relation:

\begin{align} &d_0 = R_A - R_B \\ &d_n = d_{n-1} + \frac{2k}{1+10^{d_{n-1}/400}} \end{align}

If $\lim_{n\to \infty}d_n=\infty$ for arbitrary $d_0$ then that would of course imply the maximum Elo score in any group of players is $\infty$. This seems unlikely given that the change between terms of this sequence approaches 0 as $n\to\infty$ (the winner starts to win essentially no Elo as the number of games goes to infinity), though I'm not sure if the Elo change actually approaches 0 fast enough for the series to be convergent.

If the series does converge, however, it seems that if we could determine $\lim_{n\to \infty}d_n$ for particular $d_0$, then we could use it iteratively to calculate the maximum possible Elo in a group of $N$ players with initial ratings $c$ through first calculating how much Elo some given player $A$ is able to pull off another player $B$ (by dividing the limiting term $d_\infty$ with $d_0=c-c=0$ by 2 and adding that amount to player $A$'s rating while subtracting it from $B$'s), and then repeating this for all pairs of players $A$, $B_i$.

You could then continue to iteratively maximize among the remaining players $B_i$ into some player $B_j$, and extract from $B_j$ into $A$, but I'm not sure if this iterative process for increasing $A$'s rating would approach any particular limit in terms of $N$ and $c$. I also don't know how one would calculate $\lim_{n\to \infty}d_n$, so I'd would appreciate any help there or a nudge in a better direction if that is very nontrivial/if anyone sees an alternative way to a closed form solution for the maximum Elo rating given arbitrary $N$ and $c$.

inordirection
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  • I think it does. If rating difference grows logarithmically with the number of games, then it would be infinite as the number of games played approached infinity, implying no maximum Elo. Thank you! – inordirection Nov 23 '20 at 05:12

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