Consider the odd natural number sequence (see OEIS A001601): $$ S_0 = 3 \\ S_{k+1} = 2S_k^2 - 1 $$
These are numerators of reduced rational approximations to $\sqrt 2$ generated by the usual Newton iterations starting at $1$. Knuth's paper "Ancient Babylonian Algorithms" (Comm. of the ACM, 1972) sets out a case that cuneiform tablets from "about 1800 - 1600 B.C." depict a sexagesimal floating-point implementation of this method for extracting square roots.
$$ 1, \frac{1+\frac{2}{1}}{2} = \frac{3}{2}, \frac{\frac{3}{2}+\frac{2}{3/2}}{2} = \frac{17}{12}, \; \ldots $$
Two conjectures about the prime divisors of these numerators arise from this previous Question:
- Each $S_k$ is square-free.
- For $k\ge 1$ all prime divisors of $S_k$ are congruent to $1 \bmod 4$.
A proof of these conjectures will immediately imply two similar conjectures posed in that previous Question, which references a "modified Lucas-Lehmer sequence" of even numbers. (See also OEIS A003423.)
NB: Somos suggested that Conjecture 2 is implied by Conjecture 1. In discussing the circle of ideas to verify this, an outright proof of Conjecture 2 was found. It is briefly sketched in the CW Answer appended below. At present the computational evidence supports the strengthened but unproven:
2'. For $k\ge 1$ all prime divisors of $S_k$ are congruent to $1 \bmod 2^{k+3}$.
Low hanging fruit
Because a great deal is known about prime divisors of Fibonacci numbers, my initial expectation was that there would be considerable research relevant to the conjectures posed above. For the first conjecture, square-freeness of the entries, the only related material I found was this previous MSE Question, involving a different initial condition:
Search square factors in Lucas–Lehmer sequence
There David Speyer supplies a heuristic estimate that the number of terms that are not square-free is finite and "pretty small".
Regarding the second conjecture, there are two easy partial observations. Certainly $S_k$ itself is $1 \bmod 4$ for each $k\ge 1$ as the induction argument shows (basis $S_1 = 17$):
$$ S_{k+1} \equiv 2 S_k^2 - 1 \equiv 2\cdot 1 - 1 \equiv 1 \bmod 4 $$
A similar argument shows that the terms $S_k$ are pairwise coprime. Let $p$ be a prime that divides $S_k$, i.e. $S_k \equiv 0 \bmod p$. Then:
$$ S_{k+1} \equiv 2 S_k^2 - 1 \equiv -1 \bmod p $$
and thereafter (by induction for $j \gt 1$):
$$ S_{k+j} \equiv 2 - 1 \equiv 1 \bmod p $$
Evidently $p$ will not divide any entry subsequent to $S_k$, so those entries are coprime to $S_k$. (We didn't use primality of $p$, only that $p\gt 1$, but it was enough to establish coprimality of the $S_k$.)
Computational evidence
Faced with a paucity of theoretical results, we can always hope that just factoring the entries $S_k$ for $k\ge 1$ may quickly give a negative result, either by turning up a square factor or a prime factor congruent to $3 \bmod 4$. But this has not been the case.
The initial entry $S_0=3$ and the next three are primes:
$$ \begin{aligned} S_1 &= 17 \\ S_2 &= 577 \\ S_3 &= 665857 \end{aligned} $$
Indeed those latter prime entries $S_k$ are congruent to $1 \bmod 2^{k+3}$.
The next five entries (spaced into six digit blocks for easier reading) are composite and have been fully factored:
$$ \begin{aligned} S_4 &= 886731\,088897 \\ &= 257 \cdot 1409 \cdot 2\,448769 \\ S_5 &= 1\,572584\,048032\,918633\,353217 \\ &= 11777 \cdot 2\,393857 \cdot 55\,780318\,173953 \\ S_6 &= 4\,946041\,176255\,201878\,775086\,487573\,351061\,418968\,498177 \\ &= 7681 \cdot 1\,492993 \cdot 431\,302713\,980890\,947612\,633357\,964569\,696769 \\ S_7 &= \mathbf{C}98 = 7460\,967982\,148609 \cdot \mathbf{P}82 \\ S_8 &= \mathbf{C}196 = 79873 \cdot 719073\,884161 \cdot \mathbf{P}66 \cdot \mathbf{P}114 \end{aligned} $$
The digit lengths of entries $S_k$ increase rapidly, at least doubling with each step. For the last entry above we've used an abbreviation scheme common in factoring large numbers, indicating a composite number with $\mathbf C$ and a prime number with $\mathbf P$, followed respectively by the number of digits needed.
So far the prime factors of these $S_k$ all satisfy the strengthened Conjecture $2'$ of congruence to $1 \bmod 2^{k+3}$.
This is increasingly a "hard row to hoe," computationally speaking, but there is an alternative approach that finds all the prime divisors of this Babylonian sequence up to a moderate limit, say less than a million, with considerably less effort. This and other partial results will be collected in a CW Answer below.