Suppose there be a person 'A' doing coin unbiased coin flips and he gets 4 heads in a row, then the chance of the next being a tail is 97%, which is very very likely. But if person 'B' unaware of 'A' doing an experiment, takes the same coin and flips it, will the probability of him getting a tail or head be 50%?, will it be influenced by the 'A'? Is probability a perspective truth?
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@HenrikSchumacher yeah, but the experimenter himself doesn't know of event A happening. But as distant observers, we do know. So, is the answer 50% correct for a tail or 97% correct? Given the toss is the same. – Vishwa Mithra Tatta May 04 '20 at 19:26
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Simply put, in the case of gambling, can I influence the next card pick at a counter by picking a card from a deck which is no way connected to it. But as far as distributions go, the draws show a pattern, so does it magically affect the other picks? – Vishwa Mithra Tatta May 04 '20 at 19:32
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If it's an unbiased coin, the probability is 50%. No memory. If the coin might be biased, person 'A' could guess that the probability of heads on the next flip is higher, while person 'B' cannot do that. My Bayesian friends can give you hints about this situation. – May 04 '20 at 19:36
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1It is the Gambler's fallacy . Also this post is relevant. – yarchik May 04 '20 at 20:15
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@yarchik Thank you so much. The post was exactly what I wanted.:) – Vishwa Mithra Tatta May 04 '20 at 20:22