I just read about the Goldbach Conjecture and it got me thinking about probabilities. Supposing that prime numbers are somewhat randomly distributed) then if we calculate the odds of a given even number being the sum of two primes, the odds are much higher the larger the prime number. The exact formula is a bit beyond me, but suppose we were looking at a situation where the odds of there NOT being two primes that sum to the even number are cut in half each time the number increases by two. So if we want to know if all the even numbers from 2 to n are sums of primes we would use (1-(1/2)(3/4)(7/8)..(((n^2)-1)/(n^2))) the limit of which appears to be in the neighborhood of a constant .711212 according to excel.
And I remember learning that there must be theorems that are unprovable.
Is it possible that Goldbach's Conjecture might fall into a class of problems that true but unprovable NOT because the theorem is self-contradictory like the "this theorem is false", but instead is unprovable because there just isn't a good reason for it to be true? That is, the theorem could have been true or false, and had a fixed probability of being one or the other, but unless the roll of the dice hits right and comes out false (and we can do a proof by contradiction), we'll never be able to prove it? We would be able to make the probability smaller by finding more cases (that is, if we show the first 100000 even numbers are sums of primes then we can recalculate the odds that a larger number will be not be a sum of primes and the new odds will be smaller than the old odds), but we'll never be able to eliminate the odds completely.
I'm sure there must be someone who has looked into this before. What is the attitude of the math community toward this point of view? Is it seen as useless and ignored because it can't be used to prove anything? Is it considered heretical to suggest something could be true without having a reason?